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&lt;p&gt;A new survey finds that 35% of the leaders of large law firms can envision a law-focused version of IBM’s artificial intelligent computer Watson replacing first year associates in the next five to ten years.&#160; The &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.altmanweil.com/dir_docs/resource/1c789ef2-5cff-463a-863a-2248d23882a7_document.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;survey&lt;/a&gt; (PDF), which polled the managing partners and chairs of 320 firms of 50+ attorneys, also shows that 47% of firm leaders see paralegals being replaced by technology in the same time frame.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;If these results are taken at face value—as many in the legal press have done—the implications are patently absurd. A third of the leadership in one of the most ardently-staid professions think junior associates will be replaced by AI within the next decade? But if you look at the actual wording of the question, it paints a hazier picture.&#160; The survey, conducted by law firm consultants Altman Weil, noted Watson’s triumph over human contestants in a game of Jeopardy in 2011, and asked: “Can you envision a law-focused ‘Watson’ &lt;strong&gt;replacing any&lt;/strong&gt; of the following timekeepers in your firm in the next 5 to 10 years?” (emphasis added).&#160; The options for respondents were: paralegals, first year associates, 2-3 year associates, 4-6 year associates, service partners, “yes, but not in 5-10 years,” and “computers will never replace human practitioners.”&#160; So perhaps 35% of respondents were actually saying they would see hiring fewer 1&lt;sup&gt;st&lt;/sup&gt; year associates (thus “replacing any” associates) if artificial intelligence technology manages to take on some of the more rote tasks currently performed by junior associates.&#160; But that’s not the same as having junior associates phased out in favor of computers.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Perhaps the oddest part of the responses is that only 6.4% answered in the affirmative for 4-6 year associates, while 13.5% did so for service partners. Law firm management thinks service partners are more replaceable than senior associates!&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;While the survey may work the legal media into a bit of a tizzy, I think the results are mostly a yawn. Law firms already use computer assisted document review in large cases, and their use has been endorsed by courts for several years.&#160; Certainly technology may help junior associates do their jobs more efficiently, and it could even take a significant bite out of the contract attorney and legal outsourcing markets, but I highly doubt it will markedly affect law firm practitioners in the near future.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I think &lt;span&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;/company-profiles/law/kl-gates-llp/company-overview.aspx&quot;&gt;K&amp;amp;L Gates&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt; chair Peter Kalis had the best response to the survey results, saying the law firm leaders probably misunderstood the technological requirements of true artificial intelligence.&#160; Kalis quipped, “One-hundred percent of law firm leaders don’t know anything about AI.”&lt;/p&gt;

Matt Moody

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